July ends with worsening monsoon woes for Northern India with large deficiency, Will August be of any good news?

The four month long rainy season brings joy to every Indian each year after a long period of summer dread however this year The Northern India saw extreme summers due to absence of any proper pre-monsoon rains which coupled with a strong anti-cyclonic circulation bough extreme heat and dryness across the entire North West. The all hopes on the monsoon during the month of July dashed, faltering the excitement of that "much anticipated relief". The month started on a superb note as onset spell dumped 228mm of rains within 4 hours at Safdarjung in Delhi and good heavy spells in other areas of Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan during the first week of July. The weather became excessively humid and hot and on the other hand isolated rains kept the humid high across the entire region and raising the real feel index upto mid 40s and even 50s on many occasions. The axis of monsoon trough stayed south of its normal position. Places like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra saw excessively wet July and robust off short trough and westerly burst (low level tropical jet) kept bringing the strong monsoon surges towards the Western India.

The weather is expected to take drastic changes over the Rain devoid Indo Gangetic Plains as the axis of Monsoon trough is shifting into the foothills of Himalayas and it will linger over the plains of North India and the terai belt during the first week of August and likely to keep on its oscillation during August, therefore bringing some good rains over these rain devoid regions

Weather Synopsis 

Monsoon Trough: Axis of monsoon trough is now passing from Saharanpur-East Ghaziabad dist-Agra-Singrauli--Rourkela-Sagar Island and extends into SE-E Bay of Bengal with a embedded Cyclonic Circulation over Jharkhand

Cyclonic Circulation: A CC is embedded in the axis of monsoon trough over Jharkhand and adj West Bengal and it will continues to move along the trough into North Western India in next 3 days

Weather Forecast

31 July: Heavy to very Heavy rains with thunderstorm are likely to occur in Lucknow, Shahganj, Ayodhya, Jharkhand, NW Odisha, Terai belt of UttarPradesh, Prayagraj, Fatehpur, Kanpur, Aligarh, Etah, Sitapur, Bareilly, Amroha, Saharanpur and nearly all districts of Western UttarPradesh. Rains will pick up spread by afternoon therefore covering N-W-C Haryana and Delhi, Ghaziabad, Noida, Faridabad, Few parts of Punjab and adj areas of the region by late evening.

1 Aug: Moderate to heavy rains with very heavy spell with thunderstorm is likely to occur over various parts of Punjab, North Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Ghaziabad, Noida, Faridabad, Gurgaon, West Uttar Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and few parts of nearby areas.

2 Aug: Once again moderate to heavy rains with few very heavy ones accompanied by thunderstorm are likely to occur along/over the axis of monsoon trough mostly over SE Punjab, Haryana, Delhi (few areas will miss the action), Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and nearby areas

3-5th August: Spread and intensity of the rains will decrease and scattered varied intensity rains will occur in the plains of Northern India

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