Monsoon 2024 sends a surprise towards Northern India

 The Northern Plains of India have seen various colours of Monsoons 2024. The season started with a fierce thunderstorm which dumped 228mm of Rains within a short time frame of just 6 hours at Safdarjung observatory in Delhi. The weather has been of various shades across the Indo Gangetic Plains this monsoon! 

Various parts of the IGPs and Punjab saw a large deficit in rainfall quantum till August end and Western Rajasthan, Delhi and Core Monsoon Zone and Western Coast of India have received significant rainfall this season, taking the tally into surplus rains.

Month of September sees large scale changes weakening of Monsoon drivers and Autumn begins to set in and crops stand ready for harvest but this year this cycle is interrupted and we are likely to see a delayed monsoon withdrawal and a WD + Depression/WML interactions will bring flooding rains and crop damage over a large part of Northern Plains.

A Depression formed over Bay of Bengal around 5-7th is moving toward NorthWest and a Westerly trough will interact with the system and this interaction will bring many of the stations in the rainfall deficit region in excess/near normal during 11-16th September.

Weather Synopsis

• A Western Disturbance: (WD) at the height of 500hpa is extending upto 200hpa 

• Monsoon Depression: A monsoon depression is moving Northwards will weaken into Well Marked Low pressure area as soon as it reaches Norther Madhya Pradesh and bordering West Central UttarPradesh

• Monsoon trough: Axis of Monsoon trough extends from SouthEastern Bay of Bengal into Northern India and A Well Marked Low pressure is embedded in the trough over North-Eastern Madhya Pradesh.

• Interaction of two air masses: The Western Disturbance brings some moisture at the mid and lower atmosphere but this WD has scored a rating of 6/10 before its interaction. This system will be bringing dry and cold winds from the West at mid and lower levels and The D/WML will bring moist and warm air masses which will then get lifted up as a result of convergence and interaction of two air masses resulting in development of strong thunderstorms and nimbostratus clouds.

Weather Effects

Under the effects of these weather systems places like Delhi, Eastern Haryana, Eastern Punjab, UttarPraddsh, NE MadhyaPradesh and parts of NE Rajasthan are likely to get heavy to very heavy rains which will be evenly distributed over the course of 36-40 hours and many spots will get heavy rains exceeding 20-50mm in one shot when the system moves close to these places. 

Extreme impact will be on Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and nearly foothills of Himalayas as 

excessive moisture will get lifted up into the atmosphere due to orographic lifting, enhanced lifting and convergence combined with the heat will result in development of intense thunderstorms over these region from the night of 11th September into 16th September.

-There is a high risk of cloud burst, extremely heavy rains and localised flooding over the entirety of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Saharanpur, Moradabad, NW UttarPradesh and the foothills of Himalayas and terai belt

-Light to moderate rains will being from the intervening night of 11-12th September 

-Peak effects are likely to be seen between 12th September into 15th September 

Effects on the plains

• Drizzles and light rains are likely to occur during the day of 11th September in Delhi, Ncr, S-E Haryana, NW UttarPradesh but these rains will pick up pace as the day progresses and by the night the WML/D will be approaching Delhi-adj W UttarPradesh and this will result in increase in rainfall and steady and continuous light-moderate rains with heavy burst are expected to occur on 12th and 13th Sept in entire Delhi and Ncr region.

-Fresh thunderstorms will develop during the early hours of 12th September into 13th September and these will bring heaviest of rains and strong thunderstorms. 

-Rains will be mostly intermittent but light rain/drizzles are likely to continue for a prolonged period of time over many areas on 12th and 13th September 

-Heavy rains are expected to occur in Haryana, Delhi, SE Punjab, Chandigarh and the foothills and nearby areas of NE Rajasthan during this period

-Updates for all spells will be given through our Social Media Handles 24x7 during this period 

 

• Rains will pick up by afternoon of 12th September in various parts of W UttarPradesh and adj NW region and these regions should remain vigilant on 12-14th September

-NW UP will get extremely heavy rains between 12-15th and areas like Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Chandpur, Meerut, Rampur, Nijababad, Haridwar, Gajraula, Dehradun, Haldwani and adjoining areas and all the areas in these districts and cities are very likely to get flooding rains upto 270-390mm during this 3 day period

• The System will weaken into a Cyclonic Circulation on late night of 14th September over Haldwani and it will dissipate over the foothills of Uttarakhand on 15th September 

Rainfall Accumulation Estimates (Rough Estimates)

•Delhi-Ncr, Ghaziabad, Noida, Faridabad, Baghpat will get 180-230mm and Western side like Gurgaon, Jhajjar, Rohtak and the adjacent areas will get 120-190mm (Areas towards the East will get more rains)

•Haryana, Karnal, Kaithal, Kurukshetra, Karnal, Thanesar, Yamunanagar, Jind, Sadhaura will get 60-130mm of rains (Areas more East Central of Haryana will get more as compared to others) and areas towards the west are less likely to get a significant spell

•East Punjab, Rajpura, Chandigarh, Tricity, Ambala, Mohali, Panchkula and nearby areas will get anywhere between 30-100mm 

NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT GO TOWARDS THE HILLS AND FOOTHILLS OF UTTARAKHAND AND HIMACHAL PRADESH AND AREAS LIKE HARIDWAR, DEHRADUN, HALDWANI TILL 17TH SEPTEMBER 

All the updates and nowcasts, warnings and alerts will be issued through our social media handle