SouthWest Monsoon 2025 outlook

-


The season of rains that brings excitement and joy to every India and the backbone of Indian Agriculture is looked upon with high hopes and expectations and brings all types of emotions during its four month long season, The Indian Summer Monsoon or better known as SouthWest Monsoon is set to begin on a extremely pleasant and intense note for season 2025.

Initial Outlook on Monsoon Drivers

• ENSO: ENSO index is likely to remain neutral during the entire southwest monsoon 2025 season. This play an important factor in driving the overall rainfall. This reflects the La-nina conditions and they are likely to stay in neutral to low La-nina conditions

• IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral and it may become positive by season end but there will not be much effect on the monsoon performance and this will increase the overall rainfall, overall base conditions supports chances of excessive rainfall.

•SST: Sea surface temperatures seen favorable for the entire season and they don't indicate any anomalies which may hamper rainfall performance. As per current analysis SST matches inline with neutral IOD. SST conditions may change by end of August.

•MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation will move into Indian basin by Mid June and it is likely to support the second surge of monsoon which will push the northward  progression into Northern India by Mid June. Initial surge of monsoon currents will fade by first week of June and thereafter monsoon will head into its break phase after intense northward progression.

Performance Forecast

Monsoon 2025 is going to bring really good rains and in a glance overall season composite shows the highest probability for states that will end in excess rainfall. The forecast has been created on the basis of historical performance and on the basis of the core monsoon drivers.

•Pan India performance is very likely to be above average with expected lomg period average end between 105-107% of normal (+/-2%)

•Monsoon will start earlier than its normal dates and will surge quickly northward and onset over Kerala is expected on 22nd of May 2025 (+/-2 Days) 

•Initial surge will be bringing very heavy rains in Kerala, Goa, Konkan, SW-Coastal Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and nearby places

•A powerful and quick initial start do not guarantee progression with same intensity and speed over the entire country. Monsoon will head into a break phase after end of this surge by 2nd June and will revive again by 9-12th June when MJO will move into our basin and that will reinitiate forward movement of monsoon into Northern and Central and adjoining Northwest India by 14-16th June. 

•Monsoon will make a early entry along the foothills and The Himalayas upto Himachal Pradesh by 19-25th June due to strong storms that will form in that region.

•Monsoon onset over North India will occur between 20-29th of June which is close also near to normal dates

•Overall S, SW, W, WC, NW, parts of North and The Himalayas are likely see a above normal monsoon. A slight chance that Kerala may see slightly below than anticipated monsoon average and rest will see as expected performance

•We will see similarities in 2021 and 2025 Monsoon especially in the Indo Gangetic Region and The Himalayan range

•Moderate chances for WD+Monsoon trough interaction 

Deviations

Dates: +/- 2 Days

LPA percentage: +/-2% 


Note: This is Phase-I of the SWM report and a revision will be released in mid to late July for the second half of the season with corrections 


Updated: 21 May 2025 at 2:00 PM


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Monsoon 2024 sends a surprise towards Northern India

-
Image
 The Northern Plains of India have seen various colours of Monsoons 2024. The season started with a fierce thunderstorm which dumped 228mm of Rains within a short time frame of just 6 hours at Safdarjung observatory in Delhi. The weather has been of various shades across the Indo Gangetic Plains this monsoon!  Various parts of the IGPs and Punjab saw a large deficit in rainfall quantum till August end and Western Rajasthan, Delhi and Core Monsoon Zone and Western Coast of India have received significant rainfall this season, taking the tally into surplus rains. Month of September sees large scale changes weakening of Monsoon drivers and Autumn begins to set in and crops stand ready for harvest but this year this cycle is interrupted and we are likely to see a delayed monsoon withdrawal and a WD + Depression/WML interactions will bring flooding rains and crop damage over a large part of Northern Plains. A Depression formed over Bay of Bengal around 5-7th is moving toward NorthW...
Read more

July ends with worsening monsoon woes for Northern India with large deficiency, Will August be of any good news?

-
Image
The four month long rainy season brings joy to every Indian each year after a long period of summer dread however this year The Northern India saw extreme summers due to absence of any proper pre-monsoon rains which coupled with a strong anti-cyclonic circulation bough extreme heat and dryness across the entire North West. The all hopes on the monsoon during the month of July dashed, faltering the excitement of that "much anticipated relief". The month started on a superb note as onset spell dumped 228mm of rains within 4 hours at Safdarjung in Delhi and good heavy spells in other areas of Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan during the first week of July. The weather became excessively humid and hot and on the other hand isolated rains kept the humid high across the entire region and raising the real feel index upto mid 40s and even 50s on many occasions. The axis of monsoon trough stayed south of its normal position. Places like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra s...
Read more

Severe and long term heatwave to start affecting North & Central India from Friday

-
Image
  The plains of Northern India have been witnessing a poor pre-monsoon and normal hot and dry weather from quite some time with occurrence of scattered dust storms and thunderstorms following few moderately active WDs which were affecting the region on few occasions following long dry lull phases. The weather is once again set to become dry and hot following a prolong severe but proper heatwave which is expected to affect the region from Friday. Weather synopsis  • Weak Western Disturbance (WD): There is a weak WD which will bring only isolated light rain/drizzles coupled with localized instability in parts of North Rajasthan, South Punjab, Haryana and Delhi till 21st May. There are 2 more weak WD which will affect the region after this one however they all will be suppressed due to a Anti-CC. • Anti-CC: A high pressure/ Anti Cyclonic Circulation over West-Central-West India will make the air sink as these systems suppresses rising air, there will be limited t-storms to no t-...
Read more