Finally A Proper Winter Rain spell to end 100+ days dry spell over Northern India

 

Northern Plains of India are waiting from a very long time for a good spell of Winter Rains which is so far missing from the region. The plains did see a intense dry cold wave managed to remain free of any proper winter rains and hailstorms so far as only high latitude and feeble Western Disturbances impacted the region. These only brought some isolated spells in pockets of Punjab, Foothills, Rajasthan and Central India and snowfall over higher elevations and now its finally the time the 100+ days running streak of Dry Weather is finally to end as a very intense Western Disturbances with a classical textbook style feature is set to impact Northern India and it will also impact North West, North Central India from late night of 22nd January into early 26th January.

Weather synopsis & features

• Western Disturbance: A Western Disturbance of 10/10 magnitude is set to impact Northern India from Late night of 22nd Jan, This system is very intense with strong dynamic and it will bring fairly widespread intense activities with high speed winds and hailstorm across North India. 

• Cold Front: A cold front is sweeping cold airmass replacing warm airmass by cold dense air and replacing the warm air at the surface level. The boundary region witness intense advection and intense fast moving storms develop in this region. There will be fast moving thunderstorms followed by clear skies with a sharp noticeably drop in temperature with presence of wind chill. The boundary region also separates intense temperatures differences. The air will get severely dry within minutes after the passage of the cold front. A Cold front also bring sharp air pressure changes and it moves faster than other type of frontal systems

• Strong Moisture Feed: This system is pulling good amounts of moisture from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The triple point front will bring high instability and intense storms and rains over Punjab, Haryana and the foothills where the occluded front will sit. Fast moving Southerly winds will push all the moisture into the hills where orographic lifting will occur and widespread heavy disruptive snowfall will occur in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The foothill and Punjab will see Heavy rains and hailstorms.

Weather effect and risks

• Plains: 

Short burst of fast moving moderate to heavy rains associated with thunderstorms and strong winds will start in parts of North Rajasthan, Bikaner, SriGanganagar, Hanumangarh, Punjab, Amritsar, Ferozpur, Fazilka, Abohar, Muktsar, Moga, Bathinda from late night of 22nd Jan and later these spells will move Eastward towards Haryana, Central Punjab, NE Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi and NCR and areas Eastwards will see main impact on 23rd and 24th Jan. There will be a strong spell over the boundary region which will bring fast moving light to moderate, few heavy burst of rains, strong surface winds upto 30-50km/h and thunder with loud lightning strikes. There will be stark noticeable difference after the passage of this squall, there will icy winds and clear skies after its passage. On/off varying intensity light to moderate rains, isolated hailstorm with thunderstorms continue to occur throughout the day in bursts across Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh and Rajasthan tomorrow. These spells will start from early morning itself.

- Widespread Cold Day conditions are possible over many places on 23rd January and night time temperatures will dip to 0-4°C with possibility of some areas even dipping into negatives after passage of initial spell.

- Good chances for occurrence of Ground and Air Frost in rural areas between 23-25th January 

• Hills:

Moderate to Heavy snowfall will being in mid and higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir division from evening of 22nd January itself and by night areas of Himachal Pradesh will start to get snowfall too. On/off Moderate to Heavy snowfall is likely to occur throughout the day on 23rd and 24th January over 75-90% areas of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and even Uttarakhand. The lower reaches and even Kashmir Valley to get freezing Heavy rains, Sleet, and some light to moderate snowfall. 

-Heavy snowfall will lead to blockage of road and access to tourist spots therefore plan your trips in advance and avoid moving during the time of the spell.

-Avalanche may occur in some areas.

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