Widespread Monsoon rains to bring flooding across various pockets of India this week

 

The SouthWest Monsoon season has remained active for most of the observed duration in this season with only one prolong monsoon break during Early-Mid August. The pan India rainfall currently stands at an excess of  650.3mm against the normal of 635.4mm. We are nearly more than half way into this 4 month long season and we are heading towards a major wet spell in NW and NC India which will start by late afternoon of 23rd August and will continue for next 4 to 6 days. This will be second last major spell of this South West Monsoon season. 

Weather synopsis

•Western Disturbance: A moderately active WD Trough in Upper atmosphere will interaction with the monsoon axis in the lower level by enhancing lifting and instability.

•Monsoon Trough: Axis of Monsoon Trough will oscillate North of its mean position and this will result in enhanced rainfall over the region

•MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in Indian basin in phase 5 and will transition to phase 6 during this spell and this will result in more convection over NorthCentral and Western India

•Cyclonic Circulation: A CC is embedded inside the monsoon axis and its currently over East Rajasthan and adj North Madhya Pradesh and it will move NW along the movement of the trough. This will pull more moisture towards the plains

Weather Events

•Hills

-On/off Moderate to Heavy rains will occur over various parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand from afternoon of 23rd into 28th August. 

-This spell will be on its peak between 24-26th August and widespread Heavy to Extremely Heavy rains are expected in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Foothills will be most impacted as Moisture from the easterlies will get lifted up over these areas and areas like Dharamshala, Hoshiarpur, Una, Ropar, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Nagar, Chandigarh, Mohali, Panchkula, Ambala, SE and E Punjab and North Haryana and NorthWest UttarPradesh will be getting back to back showers.

•Plains.

Rajasthan and Gujarat will be getting widespread daily rainfall in Heavy to Extremely Heavy category where the spells will dump upto 100-150mm in one go almost on a daily basis till 28th of August.

Haryana, Punjab and Delhi to get Scattered to Widespread Rainfall in Moderate to Heavy category alternatively, it will rain in some pockets almost daily but some areas will be left out, widespread spells are only expected between 24-26th August

North Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh to get scattered varying intensity spells till 29th of August.

*This will be second largest spell of this Monsoon Season. We will have more such spells in September but they will not be as vigorous as this one.