SW Monsoon 2021 analysis

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Many places were witnessing Heatwave like conditions in NorthIndia from 1st July. We can say Heatwave in July after several years.

Occasional scattered t-storms in various parts of plains failed to bring down temperature. With high humidity heat index skyrocketed making wx super comfortable 

Monsoon break has finally ended with couple of LPA upcoming days looks super for parts of the country

Monsoon Onset over Remaining parts of North India including Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, West UttarPradesh & Rajasthan 

•Delhi to observe its 2nd delayed monsoon onset of this century after 2002

•Expected Arrival of SMW over W UP & Delhi between 10-11th July, it will be a weak - near Moderate onset

•Onset over parts of Haryana & Rajasthan b/w 11-13th July

•Onset over Punjab & Bits of W Rajasthan b/w 13-15th July

🔺️ Error Margin +/-2 Days

Weather Features and their effect

•Strong flow of Easterlies towards plains with SW'lies bringing moisture from Arabian sea to N India

• Southshifting of Monsoon trough (its is a elongated region of low pressure down ahifting brings good rains and hills shifting brings less rainfall activity)

•Weak LPA in West Central Bay of Bengal around night of 10th July, it is likely to activate westerm arm of Monsoon trough.

🔹️Interaction of all these system to have a good effect on rainfall

Weather effects 
Mumbai: under influence of UAC over Arabian sea & bay LPA, some on/off Moderate-Heavy passing showers are possible in Mumbai and Adjoining areas b/w 10-14 July. Accumulation may surpass 250mm mark at some places. Few heavy spells expected between 11-12 July
Some areas may face waterlogging issue and traffic disruptions


North India
Delhi, Haryana, East Rajasthan, West UttarPrades, Punjab: these places may witness one or two isolated Mod-Intense spells along with gusty winds between 10th July and morning of 11th July mainly due to Monsoon trough and Easterlies, clouds will be stand and deliver type so less movement.
day to remains uncomfortable at someplace

•From 11th july Weak Wd, revival of monsoon trough, easterlies bringing moisture, 75-90% parts of North India going to witness widespread thundershower activities. They will help in monsoon arrival

•Intensity will be light-Mod
•Temp to fall by 8-13°C in some parts
•Accumulation to be in Mod-Heavy category in Delhi, E/C Haryana, E Rajasthan, W UttarPradesh  
•Intensity to decrease between 14-15th July
•Patchy activities to continue after 14th till 18th 
• July 2nd & 3rd week looks good for these places

•Flood warning for Hills due to heavy Rain along with few extremely heavy spells betweeen 10-15th July

GUJARAT: Some places may witness on/off passing short spells of thundershower between 11-16th July

E UttarPradesh, Madhyapradesh: some places to witness passing moderate intensity thunderstorms between 9-20th July, some parts of bihar to witness flooding

Rest of maharashtra to witness on/off short spells of thundershowers 

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