SouthWest Monsoon 2021 forecast

-


 Monsoon Made weak onset over kerala by 3rd June, slight delay was caused by two strong cyclones in both sea's. monsoon performed quite well western coast till date. 

Quite Active Monsoon surge with the help of two UAC's during mid June Will Push NLM further. A low pressure area is likely to form in northwestern bay of bengal by 12th june. under its influence heavy to very heavy rain is possible in coastal odisha, west bengal and someparts of east uttarpradesh.

Light to Moderate Rain is expected over Andrapradesh, TamilNadu, Chattisgarh, Uttarpradesh, Bihar, MadhyaPradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Parts of Karnataka

Monsoon has already covered state of Maharastra on 10th june. a offshore vortex near Maha and karnataka coast to give moderate to heavy rainfall in western coast until 28th june


weak LPA will help monsoon to move forward into parts of W uttarpradesh and will give extremely heavy rain in east UP between 18th june - 21st june.

Delhi and Ncr region to get patchy light-mod spells from stand and deliver types of clouds & some duststorm activities during next 5 days. a weak WD will help this region to get some activities.

500Hpa wind flow is Southeastern over W uttarpradesh and parts of North Haryana, supporting Southeast to NorthWest Cloud Movement over parts of Ambala, Yamunanagar and adj areas.

850Hpa easterlies and Shifting of monsoon though will help Monsoon to move forward into parts of western Uttarpradesh.

Conditions are not favorable for monsoon onset over Delhi, parts of Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan until July.

A somewhat weak monsoon onset is expected over parts of North India Between 26th june - 7th july 


ERROR MARGIN +/- 3 DAYS


More updates later

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

SouthWest Monsoon 2025 outlook

-
Image
The season of rains that brings excitement and joy to every India and the backbone of Indian Agriculture is looked upon with high hopes and expectations and brings all types of emotions during its four month long season, The Indian Summer Monsoon or better known as SouthWest Monsoon is set to begin on a extremely pleasant and intense note for season 2025. Initial Outlook on Monsoon Drivers • ENSO: ENSO index is likely to remain neutral during the entire southwest monsoon 2025 season. This play an important factor in driving the overall rainfall. This reflects the La-nina conditions and they are likely to stay in neutral to low La-nina conditions • IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral and it may become positive by season end but there will not be much effect on the monsoon performance and this will increase the overall rainfall, overall base conditions supports chances of excessive rainfall. •SST: Sea surface temperatures seen favorable for the entire season and they don't i...
Read more

Monsoon 2024 sends a surprise towards Northern India

-
Image
 The Northern Plains of India have seen various colours of Monsoons 2024. The season started with a fierce thunderstorm which dumped 228mm of Rains within a short time frame of just 6 hours at Safdarjung observatory in Delhi. The weather has been of various shades across the Indo Gangetic Plains this monsoon!  Various parts of the IGPs and Punjab saw a large deficit in rainfall quantum till August end and Western Rajasthan, Delhi and Core Monsoon Zone and Western Coast of India have received significant rainfall this season, taking the tally into surplus rains. Month of September sees large scale changes weakening of Monsoon drivers and Autumn begins to set in and crops stand ready for harvest but this year this cycle is interrupted and we are likely to see a delayed monsoon withdrawal and a WD + Depression/WML interactions will bring flooding rains and crop damage over a large part of Northern Plains. A Depression formed over Bay of Bengal around 5-7th is moving toward NorthW...
Read more

Widespread Monsoon rains to bring flooding across various pockets of India this week

-
Image
  The SouthWest Monsoon season has remained active for most of the observed duration in this season with only one prolong monsoon break during Early-Mid August. The pan India rainfall currently stands at an excess of  650.3mm against the normal of 635.4mm. We are nearly more than half way into this 4 month long season and we are heading towards a major wet spell in NW and NC India which will start by late afternoon of 23rd August and will continue for next 4 to 6 days. This will be second last major spell of this South West Monsoon season.  Weather synopsis •Western Disturbance: A moderately active WD Trough in Upper atmosphere will interaction with the monsoon axis in the lower level by enhancing lifting and instability. •Monsoon Trough: Axis of Monsoon Trough will oscillate North of its mean position and this will result in enhanced rainfall over the region •MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in Indian basin in phase 5 and will transition to phase 6 during this spe...
Read more